New Trend Magazine (www.newtrendmag.org)
[This analysis is based on the available information and could be incorrect.]
Pakistan-India-Kashmir-Afghanistan: What's Up?
Fact Sheet About a Seemingly Complex Conflict
1. The U.S.'s main interest is the "war against terrorism" aimed at
ensuring that an Islamic power does not emerge in Afghanistan.
2. Learning from the Russian experience, the U.S. knew that if Pakistan
was not delinked from Islamic Afghanistan, it would be impossible to
crush the "terrorists" in Afghanistan.
3. The U.S. had successfully planted General Musharref as the leader of
Pakistan. When the "war against terrorism" began, Musharref was promised
huge funding and American secret service support to keep him in power.
[Pakistan's debts would be written off, the story went.]
4. In turn, Musharref sealed off Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, gave
military bases to the U.S. in Pakistan and started a hunt for Al-Qaeda
and Taliban members in Pakistan.
5. The Islamic movement in Pakistan gave a powerful but peaceful response
to the U.S.-Musharref deal by bringing tens of thousands of demonstrators
into the streets supporting the Taliban and Osama bin Laden.
6. To thwart the Islamist response, India, which is part of the
Israel-U.S. nexus, brought a million troops to Pakistan's borders. India
has been Pakistan's traditional enemy, threatening Pakistan's national
integrity. THE KASHMIR DISPUTE HAS KEPT THE INDO-PAK HOSTILITY SIMMERING.
The point here was that if the Islamists try to overthrow Musharref,
India would take advantage of the situation. Thus Indian troop movements
are part of the INTERNATIONAL Israel-U.S.-India movement against Islam.
7. The situation in Kashmir is horrendous with 700,000 Indian troops
trying to crush the indigenous movement of the people for freedom. Indian
atrocities, including rapes of Kashmiri women, drew volunteers from
Pakistan who slipped into Kashmir to help the people fight India.
7a. India considered the "war on terrorism" concept very opportune to
label the Kashmiri freedom struggle as "terrorism." In particular, all
volunteers helping the Kashmiris were to be "terrorists."
8. For the Islamic movement in Afghanistan, it's important that Pakistani
troops which have sealed the border be withdrawn. Increased Indian
pressure would necessitate this withdrawal. It appears that an attack on
the Indian parliament in December and now the attack on the Indian army
camp in Jammu would aim at bringing about this withdrawal. The jihadists
seem to be daring India to attack.
9. India's game with Musharref is a delicate balance aimed at helping the
Pakistani coup leader fend off his Islamic opposition. However, with
Kashmiris up in arms, India might decide that it has an opportunity to
strike a decisive blow to put a permanent stop to Pakistani people's
support for the freedom struggle.
10. India, however, has to work out an attack very cleverly. An all out
attack on Pakistan would unite Pakistanis on the only basis of unity they
have, which is Islam. Pakistan would have to withdraw its 60,000 troops
from the Afghan border and thus open up support from Pakistan for the
resurgent Taliban-Al-Qaida. America's "war on terrorism" would be in
11. Segments of the Pakistan army are disturbed by Musharref's anti-Islam
deals with the U.S. The recent referendum was a blunder and clarified the
fact that Musharref has the support of a mere FIVE to 10 percent of the
Pakistani people. Hence increasing pressures from the U.S. could lead to
a coup which could result in:
1. A new pro-U.S. regime (military + Benazir Bhutto+MQM) or
2. An Islamic officers' group rallying the entire population to Islamic
unity and Jihad.
12. If the coup takes the shape of #2 in 11 above, the U.S. might decide
to intervene militarily in Pakistan.
13. Unless India gets out of step with the U.S., there won't be an attack
on Pakistan. Instead, Musharref will, like Arafat in Palestine, be
ordered to intensify his attack on Islamists inside Pakistan, which in
turn will radicalize Pakistanis against the U.S.
2002-06-02 Sun 16:44ct