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[This analysis is based on the available information and could be incorrect.]

Pakistan-India-Kashmir-Afghanistan: What's Up?
Fact Sheet About a Seemingly Complex Conflict

1. The U.S.'s main interest is the "war against terrorism" aimed at ensuring that an Islamic power does not emerge in Afghanistan.
2. Learning from the Russian experience, the U.S. knew that if Pakistan was not delinked from Islamic Afghanistan, it would be impossible to crush the "terrorists" in Afghanistan.
3. The U.S. had successfully planted General Musharref as the leader of Pakistan. When the "war against terrorism" began, Musharref was promised huge funding and American secret service support to keep him in power. [Pakistan's debts would be written off, the story went.]
4. In turn, Musharref sealed off Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, gave military bases to the U.S. in Pakistan and started a hunt for Al-Qaeda and Taliban members in Pakistan.
5. The Islamic movement in Pakistan gave a powerful but peaceful response to the U.S.-Musharref deal by bringing tens of thousands of demonstrators into the streets supporting the Taliban and Osama bin Laden.
6. To thwart the Islamist response, India, which is part of the Israel-U.S. nexus, brought a million troops to Pakistan's borders. India has been Pakistan's traditional enemy, threatening Pakistan's national integrity. THE KASHMIR DISPUTE HAS KEPT THE INDO-PAK HOSTILITY SIMMERING.
The point here was that if the Islamists try to overthrow Musharref, India would take advantage of the situation. Thus Indian troop movements are part of the INTERNATIONAL Israel-U.S.-India movement against Islam.
7. The situation in Kashmir is horrendous with 700,000 Indian troops trying to crush the indigenous movement of the people for freedom. Indian atrocities, including rapes of Kashmiri women, drew volunteers from Pakistan who slipped into Kashmir to help the people fight India.
7a. India considered the "war on terrorism" concept very opportune to label the Kashmiri freedom struggle as "terrorism." In particular, all volunteers helping the Kashmiris were to be "terrorists."
8. For the Islamic movement in Afghanistan, it's important that Pakistani troops which have sealed the border be withdrawn. Increased Indian pressure would necessitate this withdrawal. It appears that an attack on the Indian parliament in December and now the attack on the Indian army camp in Jammu would aim at bringing about this withdrawal. The jihadists seem to be daring India to attack.
9. India's game with Musharref is a delicate balance aimed at helping the Pakistani coup leader fend off his Islamic opposition. However, with Kashmiris up in arms, India might decide that it has an opportunity to strike a decisive blow to put a permanent stop to Pakistani people's support for the freedom struggle.
10. India, however, has to work out an attack very cleverly. An all out attack on Pakistan would unite Pakistanis on the only basis of unity they have, which is Islam. Pakistan would have to withdraw its 60,000 troops from the Afghan border and thus open up support from Pakistan for the resurgent Taliban-Al-Qaida. America's "war on terrorism" would be in jeopardy.
11. Segments of the Pakistan army are disturbed by Musharref's anti-Islam deals with the U.S. The recent referendum was a blunder and clarified the fact that Musharref has the support of a mere FIVE to 10 percent of the Pakistani people. Hence increasing pressures from the U.S. could lead to a coup which could result in:
1. A new pro-U.S. regime (military + Benazir Bhutto+MQM) or
2. An Islamic officers' group rallying the entire population to Islamic unity and Jihad.
12. If the coup takes the shape of #2 in 11 above, the U.S. might decide to intervene militarily in Pakistan.
13. Unless India gets out of step with the U.S., there won't be an attack on Pakistan. Instead, Musharref will, like Arafat in Palestine, be ordered to intensify his attack on Islamists inside Pakistan, which in turn will radicalize Pakistanis against the U.S.

2002-06-02 Sun 16:44ct